Presidential Predictions: Economics-Style

In the 1992 presidential election, political consultant James Carville famously quipped, “It’s the economy, stupid.”  Long before that statement, Yale economist Ray Fair began using statistical methods with heavy emphasis on a few economic indicators to predict presidential elections.  CAE Director Brian Goff discusses Fair predictions for the 2012 elections along with some modifications of the Fair approach.  Will Obama win?  Yes, no, maybe …

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