Kazakhstan GDP (KZT bn)

GDP in Kazakhstan

Economy speeds up in Q4

According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth ticked up to 3.3% year on year cumulatively through December, from 3.0% through September.

The acceleration was mainly driven by an increase in domestic demand. Public consumption rose by 9.1% through December (Q1-Q3: -3.8% yoy), while private consumption increased by 2.0% in the year (Q1-Q3: -1.0% yoy). In addition, gross fixed investment hit a three-year high of 3.6% in the cumulative period to December (Q1-Q3: +3.0% yoy).

Less positively, on the external front, growth in exports of goods and services slowed to 10.2% through December (Q1-Q3: +18.0% yoy). On the other hand, growth in imports of goods and services accelerated mildly to 11.6% in 2022 as a whole (Q1-Q3: +11.2% yoy).

Q4’s momentum should carry into 2023. Expectations of softer inflationary pressures likely boost private consumption and fixed investment, respectively, which should translate into stronger economic activity this year. Moreover, interest rates may have peaked and could be cut soon. However, lower export growth and public consumption should cap the expansion.