South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
GDP will expand at a weaker pace this year. A slowdown in the Euro area economy, above-target inflation and tighter financing conditions will weigh on household spending, industry and the external sector. Tighter financing conditions will further hit domestic demand. Turkey’s elections and the performance of the Eurozone economy are key factors to watch.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation declined to 31.4% in March from 34.5% in February. Price pressures fell in all countries except for Serbia. The sharpest decrease was recorded in Turkey on a high base effect. Regional inflation will ease further ahead thanks to stabilizing commodity prices and easing supply chain pressures. Falling inflation in heavyweight Turkey will be key.
|Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %)||6.1||3.4||2.0||-1.7||9.5|
|Private Consumption (ann. var. %)||5.8||2.6||2.3||-0.5||11.5|
|Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)||7.5||0.3||-3.3||3.8||7.3|
|Industrial Production (ann. var. %)||7.4||1.9||-1.1||-1.5||12.4|
|Unemployment (% of active population, aop)||12.2||11.6||12.5||12.2||11.2|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.0||-1.3||-2.0||-5.8||-4.1|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||53.2||56.9||56.7||66.7||65.8|
|Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)||7.0||9.7||8.8||6.6||11.3|
|Policy Rate (%, eop)||6.22||16.69||8.54||11.31||9.37|
|Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop)||7.5||9.2||9.7||10.2||13.8|