Bosnia-Herz. Fixed Investment (ann. var. %)

Bosnia-Herz. Economic Forecast

Bosnia-Herz. Economic Outlook

Year-on-year GDP growth slowed to 1.7% in the fourth quarter, down from 2.6% in Q3. The deceleration was driven by expansions in the construction and service sectors, while manufacturing and agriculture contracted. Looking at Q1 2023, high-frequency indicators suggest a further deceleration. Industrial production contracted at a sharper pace in the quarter relative to Q4, while growth in both merchandise exports and retail sales slowed. More positively, the number of overnight tourist stays increased by 15.4% in January–February from the year-earlier period. In other news, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina formed a new government on April 28, after several months of political gridlock. This is expected to bring more stability, but significant near-term economic benefits are not anticipated.

Bosnia-Herz. Inflation

Inflation came in at 10.3% in March, down from 12.9% in February. Average inflation is set to recede in 2023 as a result of a tough base effect, albeit while remaining at a relatively high level. Unexpected changes in energy and food prices are factors to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Bosnia-Herz. from 2013 to 2022.

Bosnia-Herz. Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
GDP (USD bn) 19.1 21.1 20.9 20.7 24.1
GDP per capita (USD) 5,445 6,030 5,990 5,923 6,911
GDP (EUR bn) 16.9 17.9 18.7 18.1 20.4
GDP per capita (EUR) 4,829 5,111 5,351 5,196 5,847
GDP (BAM bn) 33.1 34.9 36.5 35.4 39.8
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 5.0 5.6 4.6 -3.0 12.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.8 4.6 2.3 -3.3 7.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.1 2.9 2.9 -3.7 7.6
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.1 2.6 2.3 -3.5 4.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.4 2.2 1.0 1.5 2.9
Total Investment (ann. var. %) 11.4 4.4 6.4 -8.5 22.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 11.8 7.3 0.5 -15.8 24.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 7.7 3.9 1.3 -13.4 20.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.2 1.7 -5.4 -6.5 9.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 38.4 36.0 33.1 33.8 32.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.8 1.6 1.4 -4.6 0.7
Public Debt (% of GDP) 37.9 34.3 32.5 36.5 35.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.8 1.4 0.6 -1.1 2.0
Exchange Rate (BAM per USD, eop) 1.63 1.71 1.74 1.60 1.72
Exchange Rate (BAM per EUR, eop) 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.6 -3.1 -2.5 -3.2 -2.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -3.6 -3.8 -4.1 -3.3 -3.7
Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) 5.7 6.1 5.9 5.4 7.3
Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) 9.3 9.9 10.0 8.6 11.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 17.4 7.6 -3.4 -8.5 35.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 12.5 6.0 1.2 -13.4 27.9
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5
International Reserves (EUR bn) 5.4 5.9 6.4 7.1 8.4
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.0 7.2 7.8 9.9 9.1
External Debt (EUR bn) 10.8 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4
External Debt (% of GDP) 64.1 63.3 60.6 62.5 56.1

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