CIS Countries Economic Outlook
The CIS economy should shrink again in 2023, mostly due to the war in Ukraine. Tighter sanctions will hurt Russia and Belarus, while activity in Ukraine will only recover marginally due to active fighting. However, GDP should expand across the rest of the region, partly thanks to stronger Chinese demand for exports and Europe’s search for alternative energy exporters.
CIS Countries Inflation
Regional inflation nearly halved to 6.6% in March (February: 12.9%). All regional economies saw inflation fall at the end of Q1, with a huge drop in Russia due to a base effect spearheading the overall decrease. Regional inflation should average far lower this year compared to 2022. The evolution of the war, FX swings and monetary policy trends are key factors to watch.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2021.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,077 | 7,463 | 7,714 | 6,930 | 8,456 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | -2.7 | 5.4 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | -4.7 | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | -5.3 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | -2.2 | 5.7 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 5.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | -3.9 | -0.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 20.0 | 19.0 | 18.7 | 25.4 | 22.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.2 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 7.4 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 8.72 | 8.78 | 7.37 | 5.25 | 8.79 |
| Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) | 318.4 | 290.5 | 333.6 | 405.3 | 396.6 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 506 | 623 | 604 | 488 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 392 | 428 | 448 | 410 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 505 | 543 | 634 | 686 | 724 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 44.6 | 39.1 | 39.9 | 44.2 | 37.4 |