Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook
GDP growth this year will drop below its 10-year pre-pandemic average. Oil producers will be hit by OPEC quota cuts, non-oil producers by high energy prices, and the region as a whole by recent rate hikes and a weak global economy. Key factors to watch include OPEC meetings, the weather, geopolitics and the fate of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal.
Middle East & North Africa Inflation
Regional inflation should ease this year owing to a tougher base effect and recent hikes to interest rates. That said, weak currencies will boost inflation in some countries, and inflation in the region as a whole is projected to remain higher than before the pandemic. Key factors to watch are the weather and the Russia-Ukraine grain deal.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Middle East & North Africa from 2010 to 2021.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,799 | 7,775 | 7,776 | 6,955 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | -3.2 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | -0.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | -7.3 | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 0.4 | 0.0 | -1.7 | -5.0 | 4.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.5 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 7.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.4 | -2.8 | -3.7 | -9.6 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 45.5 | 43.7 | 46.9 | 58.0 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 7.3 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 3.69 | 3.89 | 3.23 | 2.17 | 2.04 |
| Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) | 117.9 | 121.9 | 119.5 | 122.6 | 114.6 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | -0.8 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,022 | 1,194 | 1,088 | 838 | 1,174 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 834 | 860 | 866 | 766 | 887 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,037 | 1,068 | 1,091 | 1,059 | 1,134 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 24.1 | 29.8 | 30.3 | 34.8 | 32.9 |