Moldova Economic Outlook
After deteriorating sharply in Q4 last year on an annual basis and contracting 5.9% in 2022 as a whole, the economy showed signs of improving in Q1 this year. In January–February, industrial activity fell less steeply year on year than in Q4, while exports growth accelerated. Moreover, inflation decelerated, and the Central Bank cut interest rates by 600 basis points over the quarter, reducing the pressure on activity. Meanwhile, with relations with Russia remaining tense, the EU agreed to deploy a new civilian mission to Moldova to counter foreign interference and hybrid threats. In addition, in April, President Sandu called on the population to join an outdoor mass gathering scheduled in May in a bid to support the EU integration process.
Moldova Inflation
Inflation decelerated to 22.0% in March (February: 25.9%). Price pressures will continue to cool in the coming months on a tougher base effect and significantly reduced reliance on Russian gas. Volatile commodity prices and additional spillovers from the war in Ukraine are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Moldova from 2013 to 2022.