Latin America Economic Outlook
The regional economic expansion will ease to below a third of its 2022 level this year amid tight monetary policy, slowdowns in developed markets and lower average prices for key commodity exports. However, an uptick in Chinese demand and a recovering tourism sector should limit the deceleration. Sociopolitical unrest and higher-for-longer interest rates are key risks.
Latin America Inflation
Inflation fell in April in most countries in the region but rose in Argentina, Bolivia and Uruguay. Price pressures should ebb later this year in most countries. However, Argentina and Venezuela will see higher inflation due to FX weakness. Additional currency depreciation, extreme weather events and sociopolitical uncertainty pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2021.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.9 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 10.2 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 9.16 | 11.93 | 9.62 | 5.85 | 9.60 |
| Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) | 275.4 | 328.5 | 332.5 | 357.3 | 412.3 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.9 | -2.8 | -2.1 | -0.2 | -2.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 962 | 1,045 | 1,036 | 947 | 1,212 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 950 | 1,050 | 1,016 | 853 | 1,167 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 34.8 | 37.7 | 39.8 | 48.4 | 43.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 9,024 | 8,715 | 8,470 | 7,096 | 8,103 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | -6.4 | 6.9 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | -7.7 | 8.3 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 0.9 | 3.8 | -0.5 | -11.3 | 17.3 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 1.3 | 0.7 | -1.6 | -6.9 | 7.7 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.9 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 10.5 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.9 | -4.4 | -3.7 | -8.5 | -4.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 56.4 | 59.5 | 59.7 | 69.4 | 63.8 |