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Saudi Arabia Economic Forecast

Saudi Arabia Economic Outlook

As expected, growth weakened in Q1. In year-on-year terms, it slowed, and in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, it contracted. The slowdown was driven by the oil sector, with crude output falling after OPEC+ announced cuts to production quotas late last year. The non-oil sector was more resilient, easing slightly in year-on-year terms and rising slightly in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms. The non-oil sector likely continued to benefit from low inflation and government investment in infrastructure and other diversification projects. In other news, in April, Fitch upgraded the government’s credit rating to ‘A+’ from ‘A’ with a stable outlook, citing Saudi Arabia’s commitment to reform and its large current account surplus and stock of international reserves.

Saudi Arabia Inflation

Inflation fell to 2.7% in March from 3.0% in February. The government’s fuel price cap continues to keep a lid on price pressures. Inflation is seen remaining subdued in 2023. Key factors to watch ahead include food prices and changes to government subsidies.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Saudi Arabia from 2013 to 2022.

Saudi Arabia Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 32.6 33.4 34.2 35.0 34.1
GDP (USD bn) 715 846 838 734 868
GDP per capita (USD) 21,922 25,332 24,503 20,958 25,458
GDP (SAR bn) 2,681 3,175 3,145 2,754 3,257
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.4 18.4 -0.9 -12.4 18.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.1 2.8 0.8 -4.3 3.9
Economic Growth (GDP non-Oil, ann. var. %) 2.4 -0.9 3.5 -3.0 5.7
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) -3.1 2.3 -3.3 -6.7 0.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 1.8 0.4 6.9 -6.1 6.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.6 2.5 6.5 -8.1 9.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 9.3 -3.0 3.3 0.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 1.0 2.4 4.8 -10.4 10.1
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -3.1 7.2 -5.0 -10.6 1.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.3 2.6 9.6 -19.7 8.3
Industry (ann. var. %) -2.1 0.4 -1.9 -5.9 1.8
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 10.0 10.3 9.8 9.2 9.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.9 6.0 5.6 7.7 6.6
General Government Revenues (SAR bn) 450 906 927 782 965
General Government Expenditures (SAR bn) 572 1,079 1,059 1,076 1,039
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -5.5 -4.2 -10.7 -2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 16.5 17.6 21.6 31.0 28.8
OPEC Oil Basket Price (USD per Barrel) 52.5 69.5 64.0 41.5 69.8
Money (ann. var. of M3 %) 0.3 2.7 7.1 8.3 7.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) -1.1 1.9 -0.2 5.3 1.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) -0.8 2.5 -2.1 3.4 3.1
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.0 15.7 3.7 5.2 13.3
SAMA Repo Rate (%, eop) 2.00 3.00 2.25 1.00 1.00
SAMA Reverse Repo Rate (%, eop) 1.50 2.50 1.75 0.50 0.50
3-Month Interbank Rate (%, eop) 1.90 2.98 2.23 0.82 0.90
Exchange Rate (SAR per USD, eop) 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 10 72 38 -23 44
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.5 8.5 4.6 -3.1 5.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 98.5 168.7 121.3 47.9 136.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 222 294 262 174 276
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 123 126 140 126 140
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 20.8 32.7 -11.1 -33.6 58.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -3.5 1.8 11.7 -10.3 11.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1 4 5 5 19
International Reserves (USD bn) 496 496 499 453 455
International Reserves (months of imports) 48.3 47.4 42.7 43.2 39.1

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