Nordic Economies Economic Outlook
This year, the Nordic region’s economy will avoid a contraction—following GDP growth forecast upgrades—though both Sweden and Finland will see GDP declines. That said, downside risks to the outlook remain, such as sharp housing market corrections and more aggressive-than-expected tightening cycles amid stickier-than-forecast inflation.
Nordic Economies Inflation
Regional inflation waned to 7.7% in April (March: 8.2%) as price pressures slowed across the region—barring Iceland. Price pressures are expected to continue moderating in the remainder of 2023, thanks to high interest rates and cooling activity. While inflation will average lower than in 2022, it will remain above central banks’ targets. Currency volatility is a risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Nordic Economies from 2010 to 2022.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 57,644 | 60,808 | 57,849 | 56,926 | 66,891 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | -2.1 | 4.4 |
| Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) | 9.5 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 10.3 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 337 | 378 | 356 | 320 | 466 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 302 | 331 | 315 | 295 | 363 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | -3.6 | 4.9 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 3.4 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | -2.6 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | -2.6 | 3.0 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 43.7 | 42.7 | 41.7 | 48.2 | 44.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | -0.22 | -0.13 | 0.27 | -0.17 | 0.00 |