Major Economies Economic Outlook
The global economy will slow this year on monetary policy tightening. However, improving global supply chains, robust labor markets and stronger growth in China will limit the deceleration. Prolonged monetary tightening, failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, a broadening of the Russia-Ukraine war, U.S.-China tensions and additional bank collapses pose risks.
Major Economies Inflation
Global price pressures will ease this year due to higher interest rates, reduced supply chain pressures and lower average commodity prices. However, inflation will still average over double the rate that prevailed from 2011–2020. The collapse of the Black Sea grain deal, further Western sanctions on Russian commodities and extra OPEC+ oil output cuts pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2022.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | -4.2 | 5.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.0 | 2.2 | -0.7 | -7.2 | 6.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.5 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -12.0 | -9.0 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 113.3 | 112.9 | 113.7 | 134.0 | 129.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.4 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 0.77 | 1.28 | 0.95 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 46,527 | 49,118 | 49,678 | 48,372 | 53,289 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | -4.6 | 5.4 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | -5.4 | 5.8 |