ASEAN Economic Outlook
The regional economy should expand at a softer clip in 2023. Global economic headwinds, above-target inflation and higher interest rates will be the main culprits behind the cooling. However, recovering tourism industries will support activity. The pace of recovery in Chinese tourism and demand remain the key factors to watch.
ASEAN Inflation
According to revised data, regional inflation fell to 4.8% in March from 5.5% in February. Softer price increases were recorded across the region. Inflation in ASEAN should ease further throughout this year, weighed down by tighter financing conditions compared to 2022. Inflation will remain above the region’s historical average, however, due to statistical carry-over.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for ASEAN from 2010 to 2021.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.9 | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | -3.3 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.1 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -6.6 | -4.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 46.1 | 47.1 | 48.5 | 58.8 | 61.1 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,362 | 4,625 | 4,843 | 4,562 | 5,066 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | -3.6 | 3.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | - | - |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 3.44 | 4.37 | 3.79 | 2.47 | 2.40 |
| Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) | 6,843.7 | 6,999.8 | 6,933.1 | 7,157.7 | 7,628.9 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 3.2 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,352 | 1,489 | 1,467 | 1,433 | 1,775 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,218 | 1,386 | 1,349 | 1,230 | 1,567 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 858 | 864 | 921 | 1,089 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 87.6 | 84.4 | 84.5 | 95.9 | 89.0 |