Myanmar Economic Outlook
The economy likely recovered some ground in FY 2022 (October 2021–September 2022), and activity has seemingly strengthened so far in FY 2023. The manufacturing PMI averaged higher in FY 2022 than in the previous fiscal year, and it rose further through April. Additionally, merchandise exports surged in FY 2022 and continued to soar year on year in October-January. That said, trade and currency controls, a U.S. dollar shortage, repeated power cuts and Western-led sanctions have restrained activity. Meanwhile, the military junta recently pardoned around 2,000 prisoners, including political detainees, as a gesture of goodwill in the context of continued ASEAN attempts to start peace talks. That said, the chances of a prompt cessation of violence seem quite low, as the junta can count on continued support from China.
Myanmar Inflation
Inflation increased to 19.5% in July 2022—the latest month for which data is available—from 19.4% in June. Inflation continued to be fueled by a weak kyat. Price pressures are expected to moderate but remain high this year, driven by sustained money printing to finance the fiscal deficit and further currency depreciation.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Myanmar from 2012 to 2021.