Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
This year, regional GDP growth will cool further from 2022. Healthy expansions across most of the region will be unable to offset sharply slowing activity in heavyweight South Africa. Risks to the outlook remain skewed to the downside and include a high probability of debt distress, still-elevated inflation and interest rates, and extreme weather events.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
In March, inflation in the region ticked down to 16.8% (February: 16.9%). Meanwhile, incoming data for April shows the downward trend continued across the region—barring Nigeria and Zambia. In the remainder of 2023, price pressures should continue to dim due to tight monetary policy and improved supply chains. Currency depreciation and extreme weather are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2020.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,796 | 1,846 | 1,844 | 1,713 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 4.9 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 2.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 0.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 8.2 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 21.2 | 23.2 | 22.0 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.4 | -3.7 | -4.6 | -6.9 | -5.2 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 44.4 | 47.7 | 49.5 | 56.7 | 55.7 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.6 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 17.2 | 12.5 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 11.19 | 10.40 | 9.91 | 8.46 | 8.30 |
| Exchange Rate (LCU per USD, eop) | 380.3 | 406.9 | 439.5 | 485.4 | 473.8 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.4 | -1.9 | -3.1 | -2.3 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 247 | 283 | 275 | 224 | 307 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 221 | 253 | 267 | 223 | 274 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 147 | 149 | 151 | 142 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 37.2 | 37.6 | 39.9 | 44.0 | - |