Skyline at night in Oman

Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

GDP grew 3.9% in Q4 2022, bringing growth over the whole of 2022 to 4.3%. The hydrocarbons sector expanded 12.2% in 2022, driving activity. The non-oil sector grew 1.6%, with services output growing 5.0% and industrial output contracting 4.7%. Heading into Q1 2023, the hydrocarbon sector appears to have deteriorated, with oil output in the quarter lower than in Q4. Private spending may have fared better; inflation in the quarter averaged the lowest since Q2 2021. In addition, credit growth was higher in January–February compared to Q4. In other news, the government repaid USD 2.9 billion in loans in Q1 in April. In the same month, Fitch and S&P Global upgraded the outlook on the government’s credit rating to positive, boding well for fiscal sustainability ahead.

Oman Inflation

Inflation rose slightly to 1.6% in March (February: 1.9%). Inflation should remain weak in 2023, averaging the lowest in the Gulf region. Key drivers of this decline include recent rate hikes, government subsidies and a tougher base effect. Factors to watch include commodity price swings and potential further government intervention.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Oman from 2013 to 2022.

Oman Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5
GDP (USD bn) 81 91 88 76 88
GDP per capita (USD) 17,707 19,860 19,044 17,054 19,456
GDP (OMR bn) 31 35 34 29 34
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.6 13.2 -3.8 -13.8 16.2
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.3 1.3 -1.1 -3.4 3.1
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) -2.6 3.0 -2.6 -2.0 3.8
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 6.6 -2.1 -3.9 1.0 -2.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.3 0.9 -3.8 9.6 6.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.9 2.6 2.5 -14.0 0.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -3.5 0.5 -10.4 1.8 -1.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.8 2.8 1.9 -14.6 14.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 13.8 -4.4 -3.4 -8.9 2.7
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -2.2 0.5 -2.3 0.0 1.1
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.97
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 2.6 1.8 1.9 2.9 2.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -12.1 -7.5 -7.8 -17.2 -3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 40.1 44.7 52.5 69.7 61.3
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 4.2 8.3 2.0 8.9 4.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.6 0.9 0.1 -0.9 1.5
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 2.06 3.01 2.28 0.50 0.50
Exchange Rate (OMR per USD, eop) 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -11 -4 -4 -12 -4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -13.4 -4.4 -4.6 -16.2 -4.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 8.8 18.1 18.2 7.6 16.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 33 42 39 33 45
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 24 24 20 26 28
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 19.4 26.9 -7.3 -13.4 33.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 13.3 -2.0 -13.5 26.3 8.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 3 6 4 3 4
International Reserves (USD bn) 16 17 17 15 20
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.0 8.8 9.8 7.0 8.4

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